a new head for the cityâs transportation department by stealing her from in-state rival San Francisco, where she had become famous (or infamous) for her dedication to pleasing pedestrians, bicyclists, and transit riders as much as drivers.
Then thereâs the wild card in the mix: the driverless cars (and trucks) now being developed and tested on highways and city streets. They appear to be just a few years away from consumers,with the potential to change everythingâfrom drastically reducing highway deaths, to transforming car ownership as we know it now, to ending the need to devote a third of our urban space to parking. Think about that a minute: the most interesting thing about autonomous vehicles is not what they do while taking you somewhere. Itâs what they do after they drop you off. Carmakers are racing to bring these wheeled robots to market even as the technology terrifies them as an extinction threat to their century-old business modelâand to the millions of jobs that business model creates. Every shiny new evolution in our door-to-door world has exacted a price along with its promise: the invention of the steamship that ushered in the first wave of globalization; the discovery that gasoline could be more than its first incarnation as a remedy for head lice; the containerization of cargo that enabled the second wave of globalizationâour age of outsourcing and offshoring. The game changer of removing human drivers from the transportation equation could easily be the most disruptive evolution of all, fraught with as many challenges and fears as opportunities and boons.
The hidden side of our commute, the flow of goods, has become so huge that our ports, rails, and roads can no longer handle the load. They desperately need investments of public capital that the nation does not seem to have. Yet itâs an investment that must be made, as logisticsâthe transport of goodsâis now a vital pillar of the U.S. economy. Goods movement now provides a greater source of job growth than making the stuff being shipped.
âYour kids will never go hungry if they have degrees in global logistics,â says the head of UPS for the American West. âBut we have to leave them a transportation system that works.â
At the same time, new manufacturing technologiesâthe science fiction turned fact that is 3-D printingâare pushing in the opposition direction. This âunicornâ technology gives businesses in Brooklyn, Boston, and Burbank the power to manufacture afantastic range of productsâfrom surgical implants to car parts to gunsâand to do it cheaper than a Chinese factory can 12,000 miles away. New local businesses are emerging almost daily, stealing manufacturing from offshore factories and the eyes of Angels Gate. Itâs just a commercial trickle, this âre-shoringâ of offshore manufacturing, not enough even to register statistically, much less hurt the business of ports and shippersâfor now.
These countervailing trends have the power to upend our brilliant and terrible global flow of goods and people, not in some misty, speculative future, but in a very few years. Which means our transportation-immersed door-to-door world and every aspect of itâculture, food, economy, energy, environment, jobs, climate, your cup of coffee in the morningâis at a very large, very vital fork in the road.
Thatâs the commute weâre all riding now, and whether the choices and trends now in play lead to a global Carmageddon, or Carmaheaven, or a bit of both, is one of the great unknowns of our age.
As one of the nationâs leading transportation scholars, authors, and bloggers, David Levinson of the University of Minnesota, sees it: âWeâve been slow to change. But change is coming.â
Buckle up.
Chapter 3
MORNING BREW
âT he Industrial Revolution absolutely ruined coffee,â Jay Isais is saying over the basso roar