Association that “the
cause of this universal fog is not yet ascertained,” he suggested that it may have
been “the vast quantity of smoke, long continuing, to issue during the summer [from
Laki] … which smoke might be spread by various winds, over the northern part of the
world.” And the frigid temperatures, he proposed, probably resulted from this fog
blocking the rays of the sun, thereby reducing the amount of solar energy that reached
Earth.
Throughout the winter of 1815–16, the spreading aerosol cloud from Mount Tambora had
been doing precisely that: cooling global temperatures by reflecting and scattering
sunlight. Although the cloud reflected only one half to one percent of the incoming
energy, it reduced the Northern Hemisphere average temperature in 1816 by about three
degrees Fahrenheit. This seemingly small cooling had a considerable impact on global
weather patterns, with devastating consequences for agriculture on both sides of the
Atlantic. Ironically, however, the effects of Tambora’s aerosol cloud could have been
far worse if the eruption had been slightly weaker. While immense in size and scope,
Tambora’s aerosol cloud was not particularly efficient at reflecting sunlight. Stronger
volcanic eruptions tend to eject more sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere than weaker
eruptions, which leads to more sulfuric acid droplets within the same volume of atmospheric
gases. A greater number of droplets increases the chance that droplets will meet and
collide, forming larger droplets that will be removed more quickly from the stratosphere
by gravity. A single, larger droplet also has less total surface area than two smaller
droplets, and so is less effective at scattering sunlight. There is therefore a balance
to be struck between eruptions that are too weak to penetrate into the stratosphere—and
so produce small, short-lived cooling—and eruptions that produce large, less effective
sulfuric acid droplets. By measuring the remnants of Tambora’s aerosol cloud in ice
cores and lake sediments, modern scientists have determined that the climatic consequences—while
undoubtedly devastating—could have been far worse if the particles had been roughly
half their size.
Unlike the sudden drop in temperatures in the Indonesian archipelago that occurred
immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora, the planet-wide cooling was a gradual
process that took up to a year to be fully realized. While air temperatures can, and
frequently do, change rapidly in response to variations in solar energy, soil and
ocean temperatures adjust much more slowly. The land and sea possess considerable
capacity to store heat, while the atmosphere has practically no storage. When the
atmosphere is cooler than the land and sea, heat will flow from these reservoirs back
into the air; but since the air cannot store heat for long, much of this is soon lost
to space. If, on the other hand, the atmosphere is warmer, some of that excess heat
will be stored in soil and water until a balance is reached. This process may be seen
clearly in summer: The warmest weather often occurs not in June, when the sun is strongest,
but in August, when the ocean and land have warmed.
As Tambora’s stratospheric aerosol cloud began to cool temperatures by subtly reducing
the amount of solar energy reaching the earth, the land and oceans would have resisted
this cooling by transferring stored heat into the atmosphere, and cooling themselves
as a result. By early 1816, the land, ocean, and atmosphere were shifting toward a
new balance of energies, largely as a result of the solar-dimming effect of the aerosol
cloud. The adjustment cooled first air, then land, and finally ocean temperatures
across the globe. Using information from tree rings—the width of each ring is related
to the growing conditions (mostly temperature and precipitation) that