precision for just this one simple choice, I may need to know, for instance, that in the afternoon of the Thursday following the second full moon after the autumnal equinox in a leap year not ending in zero, you drink four cups of coffee instead of three, provided the brand is something other than Starbucks.
“I could model that, if I knew the relevant variables. But suppose I needed to work out the possibilities for ten people, or a hundred, or a thousand.”
“Faster computers could accommodate those calculations,” said Markowitz. “For instance, weather forecasting is far more accurate than it was even a decade ago.”
“For natural phenomena, perhaps; but don’t forget that with the markets, we’re dealing with people. Human beings do inexplicable things. Not only do they not always seek – how do the economists put it – maximum utility , but they can, and often do, act in a manner directly contrary to their own self interests, or even their own self preservation.
“Young people demonstrate this every day on those silly video web sites. As a private investigator, Mr. Culloden, surely you would concur.”
“Unfortunately that is true.”
“But you still took the money, knowing what he asked you to do was impossible,” said Markowitz.
“We did, and I’ll apologize for perhaps misleading you. That being said, under our contract, your father owns the lion’s share of patent rights to our work, which should be sufficient for him to recover his investment, and earn a decent return to boot.”
While I could see the wheels of his mind turning, Markowitz made no immediate reply.
I waited a few moments and then spoke softly. “We’d like to ask you about that return, if it’s not too much trouble.”
She stared down at the floor and did not respond.
“I believe you left something out of the account of your progress here.”
Again, she did not speak.
“A little over a billion somethings, if my math is correct.”
Finally, she glanced back up. “You mean our stock in Wal-Mart and Cisco?”
“You presented yourselves as modestly prosperous academics,” I replied, “something we checked thoroughly before Jonah Markowitz hired you and provided the funding for this venture. It turns out you were multimillionaires all along. I believe you owe us an explanation.”
She hesitated for a few moments as she turned the screen back around to its regular position.
“When you found the basis of our wealth, I assume you checked the purchase dates?”
I nodded. “That was a puzzle. You were ten. He was fifteen.”
“How did you explain that? Rich uncles? Hidden trust funds? Ed McMahon showing up at our doorstep?”
“We couldn’t find anything.”
“No, you couldn’t, could you?”
“Then how did you do it?”
She smiled. “It was actually quite straightforward. We sent our orders back in time.”
Markowitz nodded as if that were the most logical thing in the world – for the few seconds it took his mind to fully register what she had just said.
Then his jaw fell. “You did what ?”
“We sent our purchase and sell orders back to the particular moments that would provide us with the highest possible returns, since we had the advantage of knowing how the investments would turn out.”
Markowitz considered this for a moment, then shook his head. “You’ll have to excuse me, but I find this a bit hard to swallow.”
“That’s understandable, but nevertheless what I said is true.”
She turned once more to me. “Like you said, your first investigation of us was quite thorough. In your latest audits, you undoubtedly wondered how you could have overlooked something of this magnitude.”
“I’ve had my staff running in circles for days,” I replied.
“I’m sorry to have caused them so much trouble,” she answered.
“Three years ago, we had an idea but no funds to