terms). We all came to believe that âprogressâ would go on like this more or less forever. We would build colonies on the Moon, other planets, maybe even in other solar systems; we would conquer disease and hunger â it was only a matter of time.
But while we were planning for utopia, we were in fact setting the stage for collapse. We were depleting our planetâs usable resources and altering the composition of Earthâs atmosphere. And we were building a global financial regime built on the expectation of perpetually expanding consumption and debt, a regime that could not
function in a condition of stasis or contraction without generating billowing crises of default, insolvency and collapse.
So, instead of being a continuation of the upward trajectory we have all grown accustomed to, the 21 st century is destined to be one long downward glide punctuated by moments of financial, political and geopolitical panic. And in retrospect, weâll all probably eventually agree that our descent began in 2008.
We really have reached Peak Everything . . . but weâve barely had a chance to enjoy the view; how brief was our moment at the apex! From here on, itâs going to be a bumpy, downward roller-coaster ride.
Whatâs the Point?
Why bother to mention any of this? Is it just to wallow in cynicism? Clearly, the only useful purpose would be to somehow improve our collective prospects. Further economic growth may not be an option for global society, but that doesnât necessarily signify the end of the world. Indeed, the range of possible futures arrayed ahead of us is still wide, encompassing everything from (at one end of the scale) graceful industrial decline leading to a mature, sustainable world community of relocalized cultures, to (at the other end) human extinction, or something very close to it.
Itâs not hard to see what could lead to the latter outcome. If we are all still planning for expansion and it doesnât ensue, many people will likely become furious and look for someone to blame. Politicians, seeking to avoid that blame and channel citizensâ anger for purposes of their own aggrandizement, will offer scapegoats. Some of those will be domestic, some foreign. Scapegoating of nations, religions and ethnicities will lead to global violence. Meanwhile, very little attention will be going toward addressing the underlying problems of resource depletion and environmental degradation (the death of the oceans, collapsing agricultural production due to climate change and desertification, etc.) â problems that warfare will only exacerbate. Add nuclear weapons, stir vigorously and voila: a recipe for utter and complete destruction.
It doesnât have to end that way.
If we understand the nature of the limits we are confronting, it is still possible to back our way out of the population-resources cul-desac we have entered. In other words, if we plan for contraction, we are likely to do a much better job of transitioning to a sustainable level of population and consumption than if we are still planning for growth and are continually finding our plans frustrated.
The first thing we must do to plan successfully for contraction is to set achievable goals, using sensible indicators. We must cease aiming for increases in scale, amplitude and speed with regard to nearly every material parameter of the economy. We must aim instead to increase societyâs resilience â its ability to absorb shocks while continuing to function. That means relocalizing much economic activity. We must aim also to shore up basic support services, education and cultural benefits, while de-emphasizing economic activity that entails non-essential consumption of resources.
Attainment of these goals will be greatly facilitated by the adoption of appropriate indicators. Currently, nearly all nations use Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as their primary economic indicator. GDP represents the total