The Politics of Climate Change Read Online Free Page A

The International Energy Agency (IEA), set up to monitor oil production after the 1970s oil embargo, predicted in 2007 that there will be no peak in oil production before 2030. 5
    Others believe that the world is rapidly approaching peak oil and that the adjustments that will have to be made by the industrial and industrializing countries, perhaps in the quite near future, are of epic proportions. As one prominent writer expresses it, we are likely to confront ‘the kind of dramatic, earth-shattering crisis that periodically threatens the very survival of civilization. More specifically, it is an energy crisis brought about by the conflict between the rising global demand for energy and our growing inability to increase energy production.’ 6 These words come from the investment analyst Stephen Leeb, who in the early 2000s predicted that world oil prices would reach $100 a barrel, a claim regarded by many at the time as ridiculous. Before 2008, Leeb was one of very few individuals talking of the possibility of oil prices reaching $200 a barrel or more. By the middle of that year – prior to the financial crisis – talk of such a possibility became commonplace; at the same time, it was publicly endorsed by the investment bank Goldman Sachs. Oil prices had risen to $147 a barrel by July 2008, but by December, as recession started to bite, they fell back to $40 a barrel. In 2011, oil prices went to over $150 a barrel again, as a result of events in the Middle East.
    Leeb is one among a clutch of writers who hold that orthodox claims that world oil supplies will not peak for another 20 or 30 years are fundamentally mistaken. 7 The disagreements between those who write about oil production centre upontwo main issues – how much recoverable oil there is in existing fields, and what the chances are of large new oil deposits being found. As in the climate change discussion, it will make a great difference to humanity’s future who is right, or more nearly right.

    Figure 2.1  World primary energy consumption British Thermal Unit (BTU) is a measure of energy use. It is defined as the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of one pound of water by one degree from 60 to 61°F.
    Source: Energy Information Administration
    The amount of new oil discovered each year has been declining for some while. According to David Strahan, discovery was at its highest point as long ago as 1965: ‘These days, for every barrel we discover, we now consume at least three.’ 8 Most of the world’s biggest oilfields were identified long before that date. Of the 50 highest-producing oil countries, 18 have now passed their peak, even according to conservative estimates. If one includes the smaller producers, more than 60 oil-producing countries have done so too. Their production losses have so far been offset by growth in other areas and by improvements in extraction and processing technology.
    Such authors reject the idea that big new oil and gas fields will be opened up under the Arctic or anywhere else, pointing to the extraction difficulties that will be involved. They arguethat production in areas of the world outside the OPEC nations and Russia has remained static for years, in spite of successful finds in a range of countries. Russia’s output growth of oil, although currently on the increase, looks likely to founder. The world will probably continue to have to look to OPEC and to the Middle East, with all its tensions and problems.
    Saudi Arabia is one of the largest oil producers in the world, and has been a key state in the US’s Middle Eastern policy for decades. Analysts disagree quite sharply about how large the oil reserves of the kingdom actually are. Many regard the official statements on the part of the Saudi government about the level of the reserves as either optimistic or simply false. In February 2011, Wikileaks, which has been making available many hitherto secret US diplomatic